Today we are going to look at ERA and find out just how important having a pitcher with a good ERA is for a team. We'll look at the top 10 pitchers, ERA wise, in the American League. Does knowing having a top 10 pitcher in ERA equate to wins? Does this mean we can pick more winners and take home more cash? Let's find out.
Our journey starts in the American League. Here's a listing of the top 10 pitchers for ERA as of this writing.
1. SantanaMinnesota
2. VerlanderDetroit
3. HalladayToronto
4. KazmirTampa Bay
5. SabathiaCleveland
6. LackeyLA Angels
7. MussinaNY Yankees
8. ZioOAK
9. HarenOAK
10. WangNY Yankees
The first thing we see is that most of these teams are in the playoff hunt. The worst team to have a pitcher in this top 10 is Tampa Bay. Sabathia plays for Cleveland. The Indians are playing just under .500 ball right now. These two are the exception. However, the other 8 pitchers all play for teams that are either in the playoff hunt or are playing above .500.
Given that 80% of the top 10 plays for winning clubs, I'd say there is a strong coloration between having a top 10 pitcher in ERA and winning. By the way, the next three pitchers are Schilling with Boston, Bonderman with Detroit and Escobar with the LA Angels. So, now we have 11 of the top 13 ERA pitchers on winning clubs. That's 84.6%. The numbers are too strong to ignore.
It's not the end all, but paying attention to the ERA of pitchers on a team can help determine their overall ability. Starting pitchers typically pitch 6-7 innings per game on average. That means they account for the pitching in 66% to 77% of each game they start. While you can't bet solely on starting pitching, because the bullpen still accounts for up to 33% of the game on average, you can begin to get a great picture of the game by looking first at the starting pitching.
The next time you are deciding who's going to win, give some thought to where the pitcher ranks'for ERA'in the league. It just might be the one piece of information that helps you rope in another winner. |
